Heading into the election, the Guardian made this projection:
- Conservatives 273
- Labour 273
- SNP 52
- Liberal Democrats 27
- Democratic Unionist party 9
- UKIP 3
- Paid Cymru 3
- Greens 1
UKIP
Here's a report in from South Thanet, the constituency that Farage is hoping to take off the Tories, from FT reporter Barney Thompson:
Nigel Farage, Ukip leader, will be hoping dawn brings a similarly bright future as the new MP for South Thanet, where he stood unsuccessfully in 2005. But he is in a skintight race with the Conservative Craig Mackinley (a former Ukip deputy leader, in fact), with Labour breathing down both their necks.British Pound Reaction
Rumour has it that Mr Farage will not appear at the count for several hours; instead, he will be monitoring Ukip's challenges in other parts of the south east: Clacton (a sure-fire win), Rochester & Strood (where Mark Reckless is trying to cling on) and Thurrock, another constituency that is too close to call.
Coalition
The likely coalition now is Tories plus Liberal Democrats and UKIP if needed. If Tories or Liberal Democrats do as much as one vote worse than exit polls show (assuming the gain is for Labour), the coalition will need UKIP.
This was a rout of Labour and the Liberal Democrats vs. expectations.
UKIP did better than expected.
The FT's Gavin Jackson observes: "Ukip have done quite well in the seats that have declared so far. But these are safe Labour seats, for the overall result how they do in the marginals is more important - and at whose expense".
Better than expected, even far better than expected may not translate into seats, but it does reflect important sentiment, especially when it's at Labour's expense.
The range for UKIP now appears to be 1-4, with 1 a given. The Guardian pre-election poll for UKIP predicted 3, whereas two other polls suggested 1.
The comments on Election live: The battle for Westminster tell the story.
I am relatively happy with this outcome. If Cameron keeps his word there will be an up-down vote on UK exit of EU. A Labour victory would have been an outright disaster.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot
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